Is This Bull Market Built to Last? What 90 Years of Market History Reveal

Is This Bull Market Built to Last? What 90 Years of Market History Reveal

Over the past several months, investors have been bombarded with headlines warning
that this market rally isn’t built to last. From valuations at all-time highs to speculation
about bubbles in artificial intelligence and tech, it’s easy to feel like we’re approaching
the peak of a cycle.

But before we assume the good times are over, it’s worth taking a step back and asking:
what does history tell us about bull markets?

The current bull market: born in late 2022

Although 2022 was a difficult year for most investors (inflation climbing, interest rates
rising, and major indices finishing deep in negative territory) the market began turning a
corner later that year.

According to Morgan Stanley, “the current bull market was born in the fall of 2022.” The
S&P 500 reached its bear-market low that October, and since then it has steadily
recovered, driven by corporate resilience, improved inflation trends, and growing
optimism about innovation-led sectors.

That means, by most definitions, we’re roughly three years into this bull cycle.

The skepticism is nothing new

Skepticism has been a companion to nearly every bull market in history. When markets rebound strongly after a downturn, it’s natural for investors to wonder if the momentum is sustainable or if it’s simply setting up the next correction.

We heard similar doubts in early 2010 following the recovery from the Great Recession, and again in 2013 when the S&P 500 broke its pre-crisis highs. Yet both periods went on to deliver years of compounding growth before the next major downturn.

Investor sentiment often lags behind fundamentals. After a difficult year like 2022, fear tends to linger even as data starts to improve.

What the historical record shows

History offers a useful perspective. Looking back across nearly a century of market data, bull markets have shown remarkable consistency in both duration and magnitude.

• Stifel analyzed market cycles dating back to 1932 and found that the average bull market lasted roughly 4.9 years and produced an average cumulative return of 177.6%.
• Nasdaq, reviewing historical S&P 500 data, found that the average bull market lasted about 1,964 days (roughly five years) and delivered an average total return of 184%. That aligns closely with other long-term studies showing that bull markets tend to persist for several years.

Of course, these are averages, not predictions. Some bull markets have been shorter, others much longer. But the broader takeaway is that rallies like the one we’re currently in often endure for several years, not months.

Context matters

It’s also important to recognize what typically drives a bull market’s longevity. Sustained growth tends to occur when several conditions align: stable inflation, supportive earnings trends, and technological or productivity shifts that expand corporate profitability.

While no two cycles are identical, many of those factors appear in play today. Inflation has cooled from its 2022 highs, consumer spending remains resilient, and innovation in areas like artificial intelligence and energy infrastructure continue to attract capital.

That doesn’t mean volatility disappears, pullbacks are part of every long-term trend, but it does suggest that calling the end of a bull market too early can be costly for investors who let fear override their discipline.

What history doesn’t guarantee

Past performance never guarantees future results, and averages can obscure wide variations. For instance, the 1980s bull run lasted nearly seven years, while others have ended in less than three. Market cycles also respond to policy shifts, geopolitical events, and valuation extremes that can’t be forecasted with precision.

That’s why viewing market history as context, rather than as a prediction, is so important. It helps investors keep perspective during inevitable corrections and prevents overreacting to short-term noise.

The takeaway

If this bull market began in late 2022, history suggests we could still be in the middle innings of the cycle. 

That doesn’t mean this one will follow the same pattern. But it does serve as a reminder that market recoveries often last longer and climb higher than most investors expect in their early stages.

For long-term investors, the lesson isn’t to chase performance or ignore risks, but to keep perspective. Markets move in cycles, and understanding those cycles helps investors make more informed, less emotional decisions along the way.

Want help building a strategy that lasts through every market cycle?

At Strategic Wealth Partners, we help clients stay disciplined and confident no matter where we are in the market cycle. Our team of CFP®, CFA®, and CPA professionals works together to design personalized wealth strategies that balance opportunity with protection.

If you’d like to understand how your portfolio aligns with today’s environment or simply want a second opinion on your investment strategy, schedule a conversation with our team today.

Because while no one can predict when this bull run will end, having a plan that works in every market is what sets confident investors apart.