The Capitalist Investor - Episode 44

The first presidential debate was nothing short of a clown show. The market hates uncertainty. The presidential debate debacle didn’t help on that front. Trump should’ve won the debate. Instead, he gave Biden a low threshold to overcome. Chris Wallace was getting railroaded with zero control of the debate. What does this mean for the upcoming debates? What does it mean for the election? We share our thoughts on the research and polls in this episode of The Capitalist Investor.

Outline of This Episode

  • [0:21] Presidential Debates
  • [3:02] Update on the betting odds
  • [5:44] The clown show (AKA debate)
  • [9:05] Takeaways from the debate
  • [14:24] Expectations for debate #2
  • [16:56] The chances of a democratic sweep

What the betting odds tell us about the election

Around June 1st, Biden overtook Donald Trump and was projected to win the election. June and July Biden was up to 60%. In September, they were back even. Before the debate, it was 44% Trump 54% Biden. After the debate, Biden became the favorite to win the election at 60%. Trump has a 40% chance of winning.

But one of the research resources we use has accurately predicted the popular vote within 0.03 of a percent. As of yesterday, this particular source has Trump’s popular vote at 49%—which means things are a lot closer than the polls and betting odds would lead you to believe. The direction of the dollar, approval rating, and the stock market are more important factors to take into consideration than bettings odds and polling.

WHY the debate was a clown show

Because Trump did so poorly in the debate, Biden won by default, though both were awful. This was Trump’s chance to answer questions for undecided voters. It was his chance to make the case to the people and he failed. He didn’t make strong and concise statements. There was no debate. sIt was pretty clear that Trump hadn’t worked with a debate coach.

But the incumbent president almost always loses the first debate. Barack Obama blew his first debate against Mitt Romney but one the election. In 2004, George W. Bush got crushed by John Kerry and came back. Ronald Reagan came back. This is typical. The incumbent president usually drops a few points in the polls. But that doesn’t mean it wasn’t disappointing.

Takeaways from the debate

Donald Trump didn’t give Biden a chance to screw up. Biden was stumbling over his words and couldn’t answer questions, but Donald Trump saved him. How? By not letting him struggle through his turn. He consistently talked over him.

Trump never took advantage of Biden’s flaw: The inability to directly answer a question with a coherent and logical argument. The point of this debate was to sway the undecided and independent voters. Those people were not swayed. Trump had so many chances and failed.

At this point, it’s easy to say that Bernie Sanders’ followers won’t flip and vote Trump.

Biden’s strongest moment was admitting that his son had a drug problem, that he beat it, and that he was proud of him. Other than that, he didn’t really answer any questions.

Expectations for debate #2

Derek saw a poll where ⅓ of the respondents said Biden won, ⅓ said Trump won, and ⅓ said no one won that debate. Everyone expected Biden to screw this up, but he got through it just fine because he didn’t get a chance to talk. Hopefully the next debate is better. Let’s hear some policy debate. Let’s hear their plans if they’re elected. Let’s see how it impacts the market.

What else does Trump need to improve on for debate #2? What happens if Biden wins? What if there is a Democratic sweep of the House and the Senate? Where do things go from here? Listen to this episode for the full discussion of the first presidential debate.

Resources & People Mentioned

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