Anomaly – Calendar Effects

Anomaly – Calendar Effects

We’ve been talking about stock market anomalies that lead to outperformance…and today we’re talking about calendar effects.

Most famously, stocks tend to do well between November and April (the “sell in May and go away effect”), during the last few days and first few days of each month (the “turn of the month effect”), and in the first few weeks of the year (the “January effect”).

Here are some explanations.

The January effects seems to be driven, at least in part, by tax considerations. There may have been tax loss selling in December which beat down the stock prices…and they catch a rebound in January.

Also, the behavior of professional money managers comes into play. Money managers often “window dress” their portfolios, by purchasing stocks that have gone up to show shareholders they own them.

September and October are notoriously bad months…and some have explained that it’s due to Seasonal Affective Disorder.

Falling temperatures…and fewer daylight hours…make some people more anxious and less risk tolerant. Stocks begin to do better in late December as the number of daylight hours begins to increase after the winter solstice.

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