Inflation, Chinese Housing Market, the Election, the NFL Onside Kick Rule Change, and More, Ep. 267

The Capitalist Investor - Episode 267

1. Assessing Q2 Earnings Season
Hosts Luke, Tony and Derek dive into what Q2 earnings reports are signaling about the state of the economy and markets. They discuss Microsoft’s earnings miss on cloud/AI growth, AMD’s strong AI-driven results, and what it means for the tech sector outlook. The hosts also highlight weak earnings from consumer-facing companies like Starbucks and McDonalds as signs of a struggling consumer.

2. China’s Slumping Housing Market
Luke shares an anecdote about his friend struggling to sell an inherited house in China, even after lowering the price. The hosts see this as evidence of a substantially weakening Chinese housing market and economy. They contrast this with the still relatively stable US housing market.

3. Repositioning Into AI Stocks
Given Microsoft’s earnings disappointment on the AI/cloud front, the hosts speculate that investors may reposition funds from Microsoft into purer-play AI beneficiaries like AMD and Nvidia. They expect the AI hype cycle in the stock market to continue.

4. Controversial New NFL Rule Changes
The hosts discuss the NFL’s unpopular new rule changes, especially around the onside kick. They speculate the changes are designed to reduce randomness and improve predictability for Vegas oddsmakers. The rule changes are expected to generate confusion and debate among fans.

5. Early 2024 Presidential Election Odds
With the 2024 election still in the distant future, the hosts dive into early betting odds showing Kamala Harris as the favorite to win the popular vote. They attribute this to an uneducated electorate that votes based on party affiliation rather than substantive policy issues. The hosts lament the lack of nuance and long-term thinking in American politics today.
The lively discussion hit on a range of buzzy topics, from corporate earnings to politics to sports. Be sure to tune into the next Capitalist Investor episode for more unfiltered insights on the latest market-moving news.