The Capitalist Investor - Episode 182 Welcome Back To The Capitalist Investor Podcast! This week on the Capitalist Investor Podcast, the squad discusses the official “Bull Market” definition. The hosts highlight the potential risks and uncertainties that could drive the market down and emphasize the importance of paying attention to fundamentals and earnings. The podcast also covers the Fed’s three moves, which could lead to a pause, hike, or cut, and the need for revolving credit to start getting paid off. The hosts question the US’s $31 trillion deficit and compare it to China’s $14 trillion debt, which is close to 50% of their GDP. The hosts caution that the US has nothing to show for its debt, while China has grown without taking on debt, becoming a dominant economy in the world. The hosts discuss the key differences between past and present exports and how they could impact businesses and the economy. China has grown exponentially in exports, becoming a major player in the semiconductor and technology world, without borrowing money to grow. The podcast ends with a discussion on current events and cancel culture, with the hosts expressing their opinions on the implications of cancel culture. The hosts maintain a defensive investment stance and remain cautious about the current market rally. Additionally, the podcast discusses the potential impact of China invading Taiwan and the resulting chain reaction on the supply chain, worse than COVID, as well as the potential for inflation to skyrocket. The speakers then briefly discuss the U.S. Open golf tournament and provide insights on the course and players. The opinions expressed in the podcasts are for general informational purposes only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any investment, legal, financial or tax strategy. It is only intended to provide education about the financial industry. Please consult a qualified professional about your individual needs.Timestamped Chapter Summary 00:00:00 – Introduction of hosts 00:00:11 – Discussion on fashion choices 00:00:21 – Cool Hand’s motto: “look good, play good” 00:00:37 – Cool Hand’s voice is gone 00:00:55 – Discussion on Mexico and healthcare 00:01:16 – Diamond Hands Day’s birthday lunch 00:01:52 – Current market rally 00:02:20 – Discussion on exports 00:02:39 – Cancelled with current events: someone not allowed on TV 00:02:50 – US Open discussion 00:03:10 – Officially in a bull market 00:03:32 – Definition of a new bull market in the S&P 500 00:04:02 – Potential risks and opportunities in the current market 00:04:22 – Uncertainty about what could drive the market higher 00:05:07 – The potential risks of being too bullish 00:05:36 – The importance of a fiduciary mindset and being defensive 00:06:16 – The hype and high valuation of certain technology stocks 00:06:45 – Sector rotation and the potential for smaller stocks to outperform 00:07:27 – The impact of high interest rates on mid and small-cap stocks 00:07:52 – Everything has been multiple expansion, not earnings growth 00:08:00 – Earnings have been flat 00:08:27 – The S&P 500 multiple is around 20, historically around 16.7 00:09:07 – The average investor is becoming too bullish 00:09:26 – The importance of being defensive and not transitioning to high growth, small mid-cap names 00:10:03 – The Fed’s potential moves and their impact on the market 00:10:19 – The need for revolving credit to be paid off for confidence in the economy 00:10:42 – Japan’s debt is around 250% of GDP 00:11:12 – Technical bull market from the bottom, but not back to all-time highs 00:11:33 – China’s debt is around 50% of GDP, $14 trillion in debt 00:11:36 – Discussion on Elon Musk’s Twitter chart comparing US and China exports in 19Connect With Mark TepperTwitter: @MarkTepperSWPFollow Mark on LinkedInSend Mark a message hereThe SWP Connect YouTube ChannelConnect with Derek GabrielsenTwitter: @DerekGabrielsenFollow Derek on LinkedInSend Derek a message hereCheck out Derek’s YouTube channel!Connect With Luke LloydTwitter: @LloydBoyLukeFollow Luke on LinkedInSend Luke a message hereThe SWP Connect YouTube ChannelConnect with Tony ZabiegalaTwitter: @TonyZabiegalaFollow Tony on LinkedInSend Tony a message hereThe SWP Connect YouTube channel!Send your questions and comments to us at info@SWPConnect.com
